The forecast for the socio-economic development of Kazakhstan for 2025-2029, as well as the parameters of the republican budget and transfers from the National Fund for 2025-2027, were reviewed at a meeting of the Government of Kazakhstan.
As reported by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Nurlan Baibazarov, the forecast has been developed considering the expectations of international financial organizations regarding global economic growth and conditions in external commodity markets. According to the IMF forecast, the global economy will grow by 3.3% in 2025. The consensus forecast for the global oil price in 2025 is $78 per barrel.
"Depending on changes in external parameters, three development scenarios have been considered. Under the baseline scenario, an average oil price of $75 per barrel is proposed. According to the forecast, real GDP growth in 2025 will be 5.6%, with an average annual GDP growth rate of 5.4% over the next 5 years. "Inflation is projected to be 5.5-7.5% in 2025, 5-6% in 2026, with a subsequent decrease to 5% in 2027-2029," informed N. Baibazarov.
At the same time, based on the macroeconomic forecast, a forecast of budget parameters for 2025-2027 has been developed.
According to forecasts, the revenues of the republican budget (excluding transfers) will amount to 15.6 trillion tenge or 10.4% of GDP in 2025, 16.7 trillion tenge or 9.9% of GDP in 2026, and 18.2 trillion tenge or 9.6% of GDP in 2027. A targeted transfer of 3,250 billion tenge in 2025 will be allocated for financing socially significant and strategically important infrastructure projects, as well as for supporting regional growth levels.
The draft legislation "On the Guaranteed Transfer from the National Fund of Kazakhstan for 2025-2027" sets the cut-off price for oil at $42.3. per barrel in 2025, and $41 to $39.4 per barrel in 2026-2027.
Taking this into account, the size of the guaranteed transfer to the republican budget is set at 2 trillion tenge annually for 2025-2027.
